Climate matching and occupancy analysis of species alien to Europe in support of horizon scanning

Soria Delva; Diederik Strubbe; Bram D'hondt; Ana Luísa Nunes; Grace Bond; Katie Costello; Konstantin Gospodinov; Ana Novoa; Petr Pyšek; Jodey Peyton,; Rabitsch Wolfgang; Helen Elizabeth Roy; Riccardo Scalera; Kevin G Smith; Elena Tricarico; Tamryn Venter; Tim Adriaens

doi:10.5281/zenodo.15231368

Climate matching and occupancy analysis of species alien to Europe in support of horizon scanning

Soria Delva
, Diederik Strubbe
, Bram D'hondt
, Ana Luísa Nunes
, Grace Bond
, Katie Costello
, Konstantin Gospodinov
, Ana Novoa
, Petr Pyšek
, Jodey Peyton,
, Rabitsch Wolfgang
, Helen Elizabeth Roy
, Riccardo Scalera
, Kevin G Smith
, Elena Tricarico
, Tamryn Venter
, Tim Adriaens

Management Team

Research output: Book/Report › Report not published by INBO

888 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

This report contains climatic suitability maps of freshwater and terrestrial alien species under current (2001-2025) and future (2026-2050) climates in Europe, based on the A1FI (fossil fuel intensive) scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The maps are based on Köppen-Geiger climatic zones and also depict a calculated standardized potential occupancy under those climates. In addition to climatic suitability maps, the report also includes maps displaying the current occupancy of the species based on GBIF data.

Original language	English

Publisher	IUCN
Number of pages	5,368
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15231368
Publication status	Published - 2025

Publication series

Name	Rapport niet door INBO uitgegeven

Thematic List 2020

Invasive species

Access to Document

10.5281/zenodo.15231368Licence: CC BY

Horizon_scanning_Final_ReportFinal published version, 4.52 MB
Supp_Mat_1._Lists_species_'no_data'_and_'widely_spread'Final published version, 302 KB
Supp_Mat_2._Final_species_listsFinal published version, 168 KB

1 Report not published by INBO
1 A1: Web of Science-article

Assessing the success of a horizon scanning approach in predicting invasive non-native species arrival
Peyton, J. M., Rorke, S., Aldridge, D. C., Pescott, O. L., Dehnen-Schmutz, K., Noble, D. G., Sewell, J., Stewart, A. J. A., Adriaens, T., Beckmann, B. C., Britton, J. R., Brodie, J., Brown, P. M. J., Cavadino, I. C. N., Clark, P. F., Dunn, A. M., Foster, J., Harrower, C., Harvey, M. C. & Jackson, M. C. & 23 others, Jones, T., Maggs, C. A., Martin, G., Mathews, F., Mill, A. C., Murphy, D., Paganini, E., Payne, R., Rabitsch, W., Renals, T., Schönrogge, K., Shaw, R. H., Smith, G. C., Stebbing, P. D., Stroh, P. A., Tidbury, H., Tricarico, E., Vallet, J., Walker, K. J., Wood, L. E., Wood, C. A., Woodcock, B. & Roy, H. E., 5-Dec-2025, (E-pub ahead of print) In: JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY. n/a, n/a, p. e70217
Research output: Contribution to journal › A1: Web of Science-article › peer-review

Open Access
Invasive Alien Species Horizon Scanning in support of implementation of Regulation 1143/2014 - Final Study Report: Prepared under Service contract 09.0201/2023/907919/SER/ENV.D2 for the European Commission.
Nunes, A. L., Venter, T., Adriaens, T., Bond, G., Costello, K., Delva, S., Gospodinov, K., Novoa , A., Peyton, J., Pyšek, P., Rabitsch, W., Roy, H., Scalera, R., Smith, K., Tricarico, E., Aldridge, D. C., Altamirano, M., Bellotto, V., Bertolino, S. & Brundu, G. & 35 others, Cardoso, A. C., Cavadino, I., Dawson, W., Demetriou, J., Devisscher, S., D'hondt, B., Essl, F., Evans, T., Everts, T., Gallardo, B., García‐Berthou, E., Groom, Q., Hillaert, J., Jacobs, A., Katsanevakis, S., Marchante, E., Marchini, A., Oficialdegui, F., Olenin, S., O'Riordan, R., Pattison, Z., Petersen, F., Preda, C., Rebelo, R., Reniers, J., Scheers, K., Skuhrovec, J., Solarz, W., Steen, F., Strubbe, D., Van Landuyt, W., van Valkenburg, J., Verëll, V., Verhelst, P. & Verreycken, H., 2025, Luxemburg: Publications Office of the European Union. 234 p.
Research output: Book/Report › Report not published by INBO

Open Access
File

Cite this

Delva, S., Strubbe, D., D'hondt, B., Nunes, A. L., Bond, G., Costello, K., Gospodinov, K., Novoa , A., Pyšek, P., Peyton, J., Wolfgang, R., Roy, H. E., Scalera, R., Smith, K. G., Tricarico, E., Venter, T., & Adriaens, T. (2025). Climate matching and occupancy analysis of species alien to Europe in support of horizon scanning. (Rapport niet door INBO uitgegeven). IUCN. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15231368

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T1 - Climate matching and occupancy analysis of species alien to Europe in support of horizon scanning

AU - Delva, Soria

AU - Strubbe, Diederik

AU - D'hondt, Bram

AU - Nunes, Ana Luísa

AU - Bond, Grace

AU - Costello, Katie

AU - Gospodinov, Konstantin

AU - Novoa , Ana

AU - Pyšek, Petr

AU - Peyton,, Jodey

AU - Wolfgang, Rabitsch

AU - Roy, Helen Elizabeth

AU - Scalera, Riccardo

AU - Smith, Kevin G

AU - Tricarico, Elena

AU - Venter, Tamryn

AU - Adriaens, Tim

PY - 2025

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N2 - This report contains climatic suitability maps of freshwater and terrestrial alien species under current (2001-2025) and future (2026-2050) climates in Europe, based on the A1FI (fossil fuel intensive) scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The maps are based on Köppen-Geiger climatic zones and also depict a calculated standardized potential occupancy under those climates. In addition to climatic suitability maps, the report also includes maps displaying the current occupancy of the species based on GBIF data.

AB - This report contains climatic suitability maps of freshwater and terrestrial alien species under current (2001-2025) and future (2026-2050) climates in Europe, based on the A1FI (fossil fuel intensive) scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The maps are based on Köppen-Geiger climatic zones and also depict a calculated standardized potential occupancy under those climates. In addition to climatic suitability maps, the report also includes maps displaying the current occupancy of the species based on GBIF data.

U2 - 10.5281/zenodo.15231368

DO - 10.5281/zenodo.15231368

M3 - Report not published by INBO

T3 - Rapport niet door INBO uitgegeven

BT - Climate matching and occupancy analysis of species alien to Europe in support of horizon scanning

PB - IUCN

ER -

Climate matching and occupancy analysis of species alien to Europe in support of horizon scanning

Abstract

Publication series

Thematic List 2020

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Research output

Assessing the success of a horizon scanning approach in predicting invasive non-native species arrival

Invasive Alien Species Horizon Scanning in support of implementation of Regulation 1143/2014 - Final Study Report: Prepared under Service contract 09.0201/2023/907919/SER/ENV.D2 for the European Commission.

Cite this