Ecologische effecten van ingrepen en beheer op Europese natuurdoelen: Lange termijn doorrekening Grensmaas met ECODYN. Afstemmen natuurbeheer en hoogwaterveiligheid in de Gemeenschappelijke Maas

The Common Meuse is an important area in Flanders for achieving European habitat targets. However, the development of these habitats may cause coarsening of the winter bed with consequences for flood safety. The Agency for Nature and Forest (ANB) asked us to calculate a long-term forecast of ecotope development on the Common Meuse. For this kind of prediction, we use the ECODYN-model, developed at INBO.

ECODYN stands for 'ecological dynamics', it is an ecotope prediction model of a river system and brings together the three driving river dynamics elements: morphology, flow and management. In ECODYN, a number of ecological processes are modelled and integrated into a spatial prediction model. On this basis, we estimate the settlement and survival rates of species and populations.

The predictions show that grazing management combined with targeted management of riparian forests can guarantee flood safety as well as meeting European nature targets.