Species richness coincidence: Conservation strategies based on predictive modelling

Dirk Maes, Dirk Bauwens, Luc De Bruyn, Anny Anselin, Glenn Vermeersch, Wouter Van Landuyt, Geert De Knijf, M Gilbert

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    The present-day geographic distribution of individual species of five taxonomic groups (plants, dragonflies, butterflies, herpetofauna and breeding birds) is relatively well-known on a small scale (55 km squares) in Flanders (north Belgium). These data allow identification of areas with a high diversity within each of the species groups. However, differences in mapping intensity and coverage hamper straightforward comparisons of species-rich areas among the taxonomic groups. To overcome this problem, we modelled the species richness of each taxonomic group separately using various environmental characteristics as predictor variables (area of different land use types, biotope diversity, topographic and climatic features). We applied forward stepwise multiple regression to build the models, using a subset of well-surveyed squares. A separate set of equally well-surveyed squares was used to test the predictions of the models. The coincidence of geographic areas with high predicted species richness was remarkably high among the four faunal groups, but much lower between plants and each of the four faunal groups. Thus, the four investigated faunal groups can be used as relatively good indicator taxa for one another in Flanders, at least for their within-group species diversity. A mean predicted species diversity per mapping square was also estimated by averaging the standardised predicted species richness over the five taxonomic groups, to locate the regions that were predicted as being the most species-rich for all five investigated taxonomic groups together. Finally, the applicability of predictive modelling in nature conservation policy both in Flanders and in other regions is discussed.
    Original languageEnglish
    JournalBiodiversity and Conservation
    Issue number6
    Pages (from-to)1345-1364
    Number of pages20
    Publication statusPublished - 2005

    Thematic List 2020

    • Water

    Thematic list

    • Fauna
    • Flora

    EWI Biomedical sciences

    • B320-zoogeography
    • B290-phytogeography

    Taxonomic list

    • butterflies (Lepidoptera)
    • amphibians (Amphibia)
    • plants (Plantae)
    • dragonflies (Odonata)
    • reptiles (Reptilia)
    • birds (Aves)


    • biodiversity policy

    Geographic list

    • Flanders


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