Assessing the success of a horizon scanning approach in predicting invasive non-native species arrival

Jodey M. Peyton; Stephanie Rorke; David C. Aldridge; Oliver L. Pescott; Katharina Dehnen-Schmutz; David G. Noble; Jack Sewell; Alan J. A. Stewart; Tim Adriaens; Björn C. Beckmann; J. Robert Britton; Juliet Brodie; Peter M. J. Brown; Imogen C. N. Cavadino; Paul F. Clark; Alison M. Dunn; Jim Foster; Colin Harrower; Martin C. Harvey; Michelle C. Jackson; Tomos Jones; Christine A. Maggs; Gabrielle Martin; Fiona Mathews; Aileen C. Mill; Debbie Murphy; Ellie Paganini; Robin Payne; Wolfgang Rabitsch; Trevor Renals; Karsten Schönrogge; Richard H. Shaw; Graham C. Smith; Paul D. Stebbing; Pete A. Stroh; Hannah Tidbury; Elena Tricarico; Jeanne Vallet; Kevin J. Walker; Louisa E. Wood; Christine A. Wood; Ben Woodcock; Helen E. Roy

doi:10.1111/1365-2664.70217

Assessing the success of a horizon scanning approach in predicting invasive non-native species arrival

Jodey M. Peyton
, Stephanie Rorke
, David C. Aldridge
, Oliver L. Pescott
, Katharina Dehnen-Schmutz
, David G. Noble
, Jack Sewell
, Alan J. A. Stewart
, Tim Adriaens
, Björn C. Beckmann
, J. Robert Britton
, Juliet Brodie
, Peter M. J. Brown
, Imogen C. N. Cavadino
, Paul F. Clark
, Alison M. Dunn
, Jim Foster
, Colin Harrower
, Martin C. Harvey
, Michelle C. Jackson

Tomos Jones, Christine A. Maggs, Gabrielle Martin, Fiona Mathews, Aileen C. Mill, Debbie Murphy, Ellie Paganini, Robin Payne, Wolfgang Rabitsch, Trevor Renals, Karsten Schönrogge, Richard H. Shaw, Graham C. Smith, Paul D. Stebbing, Pete A. Stroh, Hannah Tidbury, Elena Tricarico, Jeanne Vallet, Kevin J. Walker, Louisa E. Wood, Christine A. Wood, Ben Woodcock, Helen E. Roy

Managementteam

Onderzoeksoutput: Bijdrage aan tijdschrift › A1: Web of Science-artikel › peer review

Uittreksel

Abstract Despite increasing awareness of invasive non-native species (INNS) and enhanced biosecurity controls in many countries, INNS are still arriving and establishing in new destinations, remaining a globally acknowledged threat to native biodiversity. Preventing the introduction of INNS, as opposed to controlling them once they have arrived, is recognised as the most effective approach to their management. Horizon scanning represents one of the key tools to identify high-risk INNS that have yet to arrive within a region and has been applied in many contexts around the world, but to date there have been no studies that systematically assess the effectiveness of this approach. Here, we revisit the horizon scan for Great Britain conducted in 2013 that assessed the likelihood of high-risk INNS arriving within the next 10 years, establishing and having an impact on biodiversity and ecosystems. We evaluated the success of this exercise in predicting arrival of these species within the subsequent 10 years. Ninety-two species were shortlisted in the 2013 horizon scan. In total, 31 of the 92 species identified in the 2013 horizon scan had arrived by 2023. We found that 12 of the top 20 species had arrived within 10 years. In predicting arrival, there was a significant effect of species having arrived previously to Great Britain, and the number of countries in Western Europe and Baltic countries in which an INNS was found prior to 2013. Policy implications: We conclude that horizon scanning provides a rapid, affordable and successful mechanism to predict the arrival of high-risk INNS. We highlight the importance of citizen science, including biological recording, and of local expertise for detecting and documenting arrival of INNS. We discuss knowledge gaps that could help inform and improve future horizon scanning. In addition, we recommend regularly repeating horizon scanning exercises to support biosecurity and awareness raising for INNS.

Oorspronkelijke taal	Engels
Tijdschrift	JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY
Volume	n/a
Exemplaarnummer	n/a
Pagina's (van-tot)	e70217
ISSN	0021-8901
DOI's	https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.70217
Publicatiestatus	E-publicatie voorafgaand op geprinte versie - 5-dec-2025

Thematische Lijst 2020

Invasieve soorten

Toegang verkrijgen tot document

10.1111/1365-2664.70217Licentie: CC BY

2 Organisatie en deelname aan een congres, workshop, opleiding, seminarie, vergadering

Invasive Alien Species EU-level Horizon Scanning Workshop
Adriaens, T. (Organisator), D'hondt, B. (Deelnemer), Strubbe, D. (Deelnemer), Hillaert, J. (Deelnemer), Delva, S. (Spreker), Devisscher, S. (Deelnemer), Verhelst, P. (Deelnemer), Verreycken, H. (Deelnemer), Steen, F. (Deelnemer), Scheers, K. (Deelnemer), Everts, T. (Deelnemer), Van Landuyt, W. (Deelnemer) & Petersen, F. (Deelnemer)
4-nov.-2024 → 5-nov.-2024
Activiteit: Types deelname aan of organisatie van een evenement › Organisatie en deelname aan een congres, workshop, opleiding, seminarie, vergadering
Predicting Invasive Non-Native Species through Horizon Scanning - Scotland
Adriaens, T. (Deelnemer)
4-okt.-2021 → 6-okt.-2021
Activiteit: Types deelname aan of organisatie van een evenement › Organisatie en deelname aan een congres, workshop, opleiding, seminarie, vergadering

1 Actief

Horizon Scanning ter ondersteuning van de Europese Verordening Invasieve Soorten (EVINBO)
Adriaens, T. (Projectleider), D'hondt, B. (Medewerker), Delva, S. (Medewerker), Devisscher, S. (Medewerker), Everts, T. (Medewerker), Hillaert, J. (Medewerker), Petersen, F. (Medewerker), Scheers, K. (Medewerker), Strubbe, D. (Medewerker), Van Landuyt, W. (Medewerker), Verhelst, P. (Medewerker) & Verreycken, H. (Medewerker)
1/01/24 → 31/12/26
Project: EVINBO - Europees

5 A1: Web of Science-artikel
3 Rapport niet door INBO uitgegeven
2 Paper/Powerpoint/Abstract

Climate matching and occupancy analysis of species alien to Europe in support of horizon scanning
Delva, S., Strubbe, D., D'hondt, B., Nunes, A. L., Bond, G., Costello, K., Gospodinov, K., Novoa , A., Pyšek, P., Peyton,, J., Wolfgang, R., Roy, H. E., Scalera, R., Smith, K. G., Tricarico, E., Venter, T. & Adriaens, T., 2025, IUCN. 5368 blz. (Rapport niet door INBO uitgegeven)
Onderzoeksoutput: Boek/rapport › Rapport niet door INBO uitgegeven

Open Access
Bestand
884 Downloads (Pure)
Invasive Alien Species Horizon Scanning in support of implementation of Regulation 1143/2014 - Final Study Report: Prepared under Service contract 09.0201/2023/907919/SER/ENV.D2 for the European Commission.
Nunes, A. L., Venter, T., Adriaens, T., Bond, G., Costello, K., Delva, S., Gospodinov, K., Novoa , A., Peyton, J., Pyšek, P., Rabitsch, W., Roy, H., Scalera, R., Smith, K., Tricarico, E., Aldridge, D. C., Altamirano, M., Bellotto, V., Bertolino, S. & Brundu, G. & 35 anderen, Cardoso, A. C., Cavadino, I., Dawson, W., Demetriou, J., Devisscher, S., D'hondt, B., Essl, F., Evans, T., Everts, T., Gallardo, B., García‐Berthou, E., Groom, Q., Hillaert, J., Jacobs, A., Katsanevakis, S., Marchante, E., Marchini, A., Oficialdegui, F., Olenin, S., O'Riordan, R., Pattison, Z., Petersen, F., Preda, C., Rebelo, R., Reniers, J., Scheers, K., Skuhrovec, J., Solarz, W., Steen, F., Strubbe, D., Van Landuyt, W., van Valkenburg, J., Verëll, V., Verhelst, P. & Verreycken, H., 2025, Luxemburg: Publications Office of the European Union. 234 blz.
Onderzoeksoutput: Boek/rapport › Rapport niet door INBO uitgegeven

Open Access
Bestand
Horizon scanning for potential invasive non-native species across United Kingdom Overseas Territories
Dawson, W., Peyton, J. M., Pescott, O. L., Adriaens, T., Cottier-Cook, E. J., Frohlich, D. S., Key, G., Malumphy, C., Martinou, A. F., Minchin, D., Moore, N., Rabitsch, W., Rorke, S. L., Tricarico, E., Turvey, K. M. A., Winfield, I. J., Barnes, D. K. A., Baum, D., Bensusan, K. & Burton, F. J. & 30 anderen, Carr, P., Convey, P., Copeland, A. I., Fa, D. A., Fowler, L., García‐Berthou, E., Gonzalez, A., González-Moreno, P., Gray, A., Griffiths, R. W., Guillem, R., Guzman, A. N., Haakonsson, J., Hughes, K. A., James, R., Linares, L., Maczey, N., Mailer, S., Manco, B. N., Martin, S., Monaco, A., Moverley, D. G., Rose-Smyth, C., Shanklin, J., Stevens, N., Stewart, A. J. A., Vaux, A. G. C., Warr, S. J., Werenkaut, V. & Roy, H. E., 1-jan-2023, In: Conservation Letters. 16, 1, blz. 1-12 12 blz.
Onderzoeksoutput: Bijdrage aan tijdschrift › A1: Web of Science-artikel › peer review

Open Access

Dit citeren

Peyton, J. M., Rorke, S., Aldridge, D. C., Pescott, O. L., Dehnen-Schmutz, K., Noble, D. G., Sewell, J., Stewart, A. J. A., Adriaens, T., Beckmann, B. C., Britton, J. R., Brodie, J., Brown, P. M. J., Cavadino, I. C. N., Clark, P. F., Dunn, A. M., Foster, J., Harrower, C., Harvey, M. C., ... Roy, H. E. (2025). Assessing the success of a horizon scanning approach in predicting invasive non-native species arrival. JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, n/a(n/a), e70217. Online publicatie vooraf. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.70217

@article{db918373b3af4ac083eae19da7febb2c,

title = "Assessing the success of a horizon scanning approach in predicting invasive non-native species arrival",

abstract = "Abstract Despite increasing awareness of invasive non-native species (INNS) and enhanced biosecurity controls in many countries, INNS are still arriving and establishing in new destinations, remaining a globally acknowledged threat to native biodiversity. Preventing the introduction of INNS, as opposed to controlling them once they have arrived, is recognised as the most effective approach to their management. Horizon scanning represents one of the key tools to identify high-risk INNS that have yet to arrive within a region and has been applied in many contexts around the world, but to date there have been no studies that systematically assess the effectiveness of this approach. Here, we revisit the horizon scan for Great Britain conducted in 2013 that assessed the likelihood of high-risk INNS arriving within the next 10 years, establishing and having an impact on biodiversity and ecosystems. We evaluated the success of this exercise in predicting arrival of these species within the subsequent 10 years. Ninety-two species were shortlisted in the 2013 horizon scan. In total, 31 of the 92 species identified in the 2013 horizon scan had arrived by 2023. We found that 12 of the top 20 species had arrived within 10 years. In predicting arrival, there was a significant effect of species having arrived previously to Great Britain, and the number of countries in Western Europe and Baltic countries in which an INNS was found prior to 2013. Policy implications: We conclude that horizon scanning provides a rapid, affordable and successful mechanism to predict the arrival of high-risk INNS. We highlight the importance of citizen science, including biological recording, and of local expertise for detecting and documenting arrival of INNS. We discuss knowledge gaps that could help inform and improve future horizon scanning. In addition, we recommend regularly repeating horizon scanning exercises to support biosecurity and awareness raising for INNS.",

author = "Peyton, \{Jodey M.\} and Stephanie Rorke and Aldridge, \{David C.\} and Pescott, \{Oliver L.\} and Katharina Dehnen-Schmutz and Noble, \{David G.\} and Jack Sewell and Stewart, \{Alan J. A.\} and Tim Adriaens and Beckmann, \{Bj{\"o}rn C.\} and Britton, \{J. Robert\} and Juliet Brodie and Brown, \{Peter M. J.\} and Cavadino, \{Imogen C. N.\} and Clark, \{Paul F.\} and Dunn, \{Alison M.\} and Jim Foster and Colin Harrower and Harvey, \{Martin C.\} and Jackson, \{Michelle C.\} and Tomos Jones and Maggs, \{Christine A.\} and Gabrielle Martin and Fiona Mathews and Mill, \{Aileen C.\} and Debbie Murphy and Ellie Paganini and Robin Payne and Wolfgang Rabitsch and Trevor Renals and Karsten Sch{\"o}nrogge and Shaw, \{Richard H.\} and Smith, \{Graham C.\} and Stebbing, \{Paul D.\} and Stroh, \{Pete A.\} and Hannah Tidbury and Elena Tricarico and Jeanne Vallet and Walker, \{Kevin J.\} and Wood, \{Louisa E.\} and Wood, \{Christine A.\} and Ben Woodcock and Roy, \{Helen E.\}",

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day = "5",

doi = "10.1111/1365-2664.70217",

language = "English",

volume = "n/a",

pages = "e70217",

journal = "JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY",

issn = "0021-8901",

publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",

number = "n/a",

}

Peyton, JM, Rorke, S, Aldridge, DC, Pescott, OL, Dehnen-Schmutz, K, Noble, DG, Sewell, J, Stewart, AJA, Adriaens, T, Beckmann, BC, Britton, JR, Brodie, J, Brown, PMJ, Cavadino, ICN, Clark, PF, Dunn, AM, Foster, J, Harrower, C, Harvey, MC, Jackson, MC, Jones, T, Maggs, CA, Martin, G, Mathews, F, Mill, AC, Murphy, D, Paganini, E, Payne, R, Rabitsch, W, Renals, T, Schönrogge, K, Shaw, RH, Smith, GC, Stebbing, PD, Stroh, PA, Tidbury, H, Tricarico, E, Vallet, J, Walker, KJ, Wood, LE, Wood, CA, Woodcock, B & Roy, HE 2025, 'Assessing the success of a horizon scanning approach in predicting invasive non-native species arrival', JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, vol. n/a, nr. n/a, blz. e70217. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.70217

TY - JOUR

T1 - Assessing the success of a horizon scanning approach in predicting invasive non-native species arrival

AU - Peyton, Jodey M.

AU - Rorke, Stephanie

AU - Aldridge, David C.

AU - Pescott, Oliver L.

AU - Dehnen-Schmutz, Katharina

AU - Noble, David G.

AU - Sewell, Jack

AU - Stewart, Alan J. A.

AU - Adriaens, Tim

AU - Beckmann, Björn C.

AU - Britton, J. Robert

AU - Brodie, Juliet

AU - Brown, Peter M. J.

AU - Cavadino, Imogen C. N.

AU - Clark, Paul F.

AU - Dunn, Alison M.

AU - Foster, Jim

AU - Harrower, Colin

AU - Harvey, Martin C.

AU - Jackson, Michelle C.

AU - Jones, Tomos

AU - Maggs, Christine A.

AU - Martin, Gabrielle

AU - Mathews, Fiona

AU - Mill, Aileen C.

AU - Murphy, Debbie

AU - Paganini, Ellie

AU - Payne, Robin

AU - Rabitsch, Wolfgang

AU - Renals, Trevor

AU - Schönrogge, Karsten

AU - Shaw, Richard H.

AU - Smith, Graham C.

AU - Stebbing, Paul D.

AU - Stroh, Pete A.

AU - Tidbury, Hannah

AU - Tricarico, Elena

AU - Vallet, Jeanne

AU - Walker, Kevin J.

AU - Wood, Louisa E.

AU - Wood, Christine A.

AU - Woodcock, Ben

AU - Roy, Helen E.

N1 - e70217 JAPPL-2024-01417.R1

PY - 2025/12/5

Y1 - 2025/12/5

N2 - Abstract Despite increasing awareness of invasive non-native species (INNS) and enhanced biosecurity controls in many countries, INNS are still arriving and establishing in new destinations, remaining a globally acknowledged threat to native biodiversity. Preventing the introduction of INNS, as opposed to controlling them once they have arrived, is recognised as the most effective approach to their management. Horizon scanning represents one of the key tools to identify high-risk INNS that have yet to arrive within a region and has been applied in many contexts around the world, but to date there have been no studies that systematically assess the effectiveness of this approach. Here, we revisit the horizon scan for Great Britain conducted in 2013 that assessed the likelihood of high-risk INNS arriving within the next 10 years, establishing and having an impact on biodiversity and ecosystems. We evaluated the success of this exercise in predicting arrival of these species within the subsequent 10 years. Ninety-two species were shortlisted in the 2013 horizon scan. In total, 31 of the 92 species identified in the 2013 horizon scan had arrived by 2023. We found that 12 of the top 20 species had arrived within 10 years. In predicting arrival, there was a significant effect of species having arrived previously to Great Britain, and the number of countries in Western Europe and Baltic countries in which an INNS was found prior to 2013. Policy implications: We conclude that horizon scanning provides a rapid, affordable and successful mechanism to predict the arrival of high-risk INNS. We highlight the importance of citizen science, including biological recording, and of local expertise for detecting and documenting arrival of INNS. We discuss knowledge gaps that could help inform and improve future horizon scanning. In addition, we recommend regularly repeating horizon scanning exercises to support biosecurity and awareness raising for INNS.

AB - Abstract Despite increasing awareness of invasive non-native species (INNS) and enhanced biosecurity controls in many countries, INNS are still arriving and establishing in new destinations, remaining a globally acknowledged threat to native biodiversity. Preventing the introduction of INNS, as opposed to controlling them once they have arrived, is recognised as the most effective approach to their management. Horizon scanning represents one of the key tools to identify high-risk INNS that have yet to arrive within a region and has been applied in many contexts around the world, but to date there have been no studies that systematically assess the effectiveness of this approach. Here, we revisit the horizon scan for Great Britain conducted in 2013 that assessed the likelihood of high-risk INNS arriving within the next 10 years, establishing and having an impact on biodiversity and ecosystems. We evaluated the success of this exercise in predicting arrival of these species within the subsequent 10 years. Ninety-two species were shortlisted in the 2013 horizon scan. In total, 31 of the 92 species identified in the 2013 horizon scan had arrived by 2023. We found that 12 of the top 20 species had arrived within 10 years. In predicting arrival, there was a significant effect of species having arrived previously to Great Britain, and the number of countries in Western Europe and Baltic countries in which an INNS was found prior to 2013. Policy implications: We conclude that horizon scanning provides a rapid, affordable and successful mechanism to predict the arrival of high-risk INNS. We highlight the importance of citizen science, including biological recording, and of local expertise for detecting and documenting arrival of INNS. We discuss knowledge gaps that could help inform and improve future horizon scanning. In addition, we recommend regularly repeating horizon scanning exercises to support biosecurity and awareness raising for INNS.

U2 - 10.1111/1365-2664.70217

DO - 10.1111/1365-2664.70217

M3 - A1: Web of Science-article

SN - 0021-8901

VL - n/a

SP - e70217

JO - JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

JF - JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY

IS - n/a

ER -

Assessing the success of a horizon scanning approach in predicting invasive non-native species arrival

Uittreksel

Thematische Lijst 2020

Toegang verkrijgen tot document

Vingerafdruk

Activiteiten

Invasive Alien Species EU-level Horizon Scanning Workshop

Predicting Invasive Non-Native Species through Horizon Scanning - Scotland

Projecten

Horizon Scanning ter ondersteuning van de Europese Verordening Invasieve Soorten (EVINBO)

Onderzoeksoutput

Climate matching and occupancy analysis of species alien to Europe in support of horizon scanning

Invasive Alien Species Horizon Scanning in support of implementation of Regulation 1143/2014 - Final Study Report: Prepared under Service contract 09.0201/2023/907919/SER/ENV.D2 for the European Commission.

Horizon scanning for potential invasive non-native species across United Kingdom Overseas Territories

Dit citeren