Vlaanderen.be

Research output

The need for large-scale distribution data to estimate regional changes in species richness under future climate change

Research output: Contribution to journalA1: Web of Science-articleResearchpeer-review

Authors

  • Nicolas Titeux
  • Risto K. Heikkinen
  • Helena Romo
  • Enrique García-Barros
  • Miguel L. Munguira
  • Wilfried Thuiller
  • Chris A. M. van Swaay
  • Oliver Schweiger
  • Josef Settele
  • Alexander Harpke
  • Martin Wiemers
  • Lluís Brotons
  • Miska Luoto

Departments, research groups and services

External Organisations

  • Forest Sciences Centre of Catalonia (CEMFOR-CTFC), Ctra. Sant Llorenç de Morunys, km 2, E-25280 Solsona, Spain
  • SYKE
  • Universidad Autónoma de Madrid
  • Université Grenoble Alpes
  • Vlinderstichting
  • UFZ
  • University of Helsinki

Details

Original languageEnglish
JournalDiversity and Distributions
Pages (from-to)1-15
ISSN1366-9516
Publication statusPublished - 2017

Abstract

Aim Species distribution models built with geographically restricted data often fail to capture the full range of conditions experienced by species across their entire distribution area. Using such models to predict distribution shifts under future environmental change may, therefore, produce biased projections. However, restricted-scale models have the potential to include a larger sample of taxa for which distribution data is available and to provide finer-resolution projections that are better applied to conservation planning than the forecasts of broad-scale models. We examine the circumstances under which the projected shifts in species richness patterns derived from restricted-scale and broad-scale models are most likely to be similar.
Location Europe.
Methods The distribution of butterflies in Finland, Belgium/Netherlands and Spain was modelled based on restricted-scale (local) and broad-scale (continental) distribution and climate data. Both types of models were projected under future climate change scenarios to assess potential changes in species richness.
Results In Finland, species richness was projected to increase strongly based on restricted-scale models and to decrease slightly with broad-scale models. In Belgium/Netherlands, restricted-scale models projected a larger decrease in richness than broad-scale models. In Spain, both models projected a slight decrease in richness. We obtained similar projections based on restricted-scale and broad-scale models only in Spain because the climatic conditions available here covered the warm part of the distributions of butterflies better than in Finland and Belgium/Netherlands.
Main conclusions Restricted-scale models that fail to capture the warm part of species distributions produce biased estimates of future changes in species richness when projected under climatic conditions with no modern analogue in the study area. We recommend the use of distribution data beyond the boundaries of the study area to capture the part of the species response curves reflecting the climatic conditions that will prevail within that area in the future.
Research output (related by authors)
Projects (related by authors)
Shopping cart
Add to cart Saved citations

Copy the text from this field...

Documents

Documents

  • Titeux-et-al_2017b_Diversity-and-Distributions

    Final published version, 1 MB, PDF document

Relations
View graph of relations