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The need for large-scale distribution data to estimate regional changes in species richness under future climate change

Research output: Contribution to journalA1: Web of Science-article

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The need for large-scale distribution data to estimate regional changes in species richness under future climate change. / Titeux, Nicolas; Maes, Dirk; Van Daele, Toon; Onkelinx, Thierry; Heikkinen, Risto K.; Romo, Helena; García-Barros, Enrique; Munguira, Miguel L.; Thuiller, Wilfried; van Swaay, Chris A. M.; Schweiger, Oliver; Settele, Josef; Harpke, Alexander; Wiemers, Martin; Brotons, Lluís; Luoto, Miska.

In: Diversity and Distributions, 2017, p. 1-15.

Research output: Contribution to journalA1: Web of Science-article

Harvard

Titeux, N, Maes, D, Van Daele, T, Onkelinx, T, Heikkinen, RK, Romo, H, García-Barros, E, Munguira, ML, Thuiller, W, van Swaay, CAM, Schweiger, O, Settele, J, Harpke, A, Wiemers, M, Brotons, L & Luoto, M 2017, 'The need for large-scale distribution data to estimate regional changes in species richness under future climate change', Diversity and Distributions, pp. 1-15.

APA

Author

Titeux, Nicolas ; Maes, Dirk ; Van Daele, Toon ; Onkelinx, Thierry ; Heikkinen, Risto K. ; Romo, Helena ; García-Barros, Enrique ; Munguira, Miguel L. ; Thuiller, Wilfried ; van Swaay, Chris A. M. ; Schweiger, Oliver ; Settele, Josef ; Harpke, Alexander ; Wiemers, Martin ; Brotons, Lluís ; Luoto, Miska. / The need for large-scale distribution data to estimate regional changes in species richness under future climate change. In: Diversity and Distributions. 2017 ; pp. 1-15.

Bibtex

@article{d6752a6b4253400ea12b7dcbee38e11d,
title = "The need for large-scale distribution data to estimate regional changes in species richness under future climate change",
abstract = "Aim Species distribution models built with geographically restricted data often fail to capture the full range of conditions experienced by species across their entire distribution area. Using such models to predict distribution shifts under future environmental change may, therefore, produce biased projections. However, restricted-scale models have the potential to include a larger sample of taxa for which distribution data is available and to provide finer-resolution projections that are better applied to conservation planning than the forecasts of broad-scale models. We examine the circumstances under which the projected shifts in species richness patterns derived from restricted-scale and broad-scale models are most likely to be similar.Location Europe.Methods The distribution of butterflies in Finland, Belgium/Netherlands and Spain was modelled based on restricted-scale (local) and broad-scale (continental) distribution and climate data. Both types of models were projected under future climate change scenarios to assess potential changes in species richness.Results In Finland, species richness was projected to increase strongly based on restricted-scale models and to decrease slightly with broad-scale models. In Belgium/Netherlands, restricted-scale models projected a larger decrease in richness than broad-scale models. In Spain, both models projected a slight decrease in richness. We obtained similar projections based on restricted-scale and broad-scale models only in Spain because the climatic conditions available here covered the warm part of the distributions of butterflies better than in Finland and Belgium/Netherlands.Main conclusions Restricted-scale models that fail to capture the warm part of species distributions produce biased estimates of future changes in species richness when projected under climatic conditions with no modern analogue in the study area. We recommend the use of distribution data beyond the boundaries of the study area to capture the part of the species response curves reflecting the climatic conditions that will prevail within that area in the future.",
author = "Nicolas Titeux and Dirk Maes and {Van Daele}, Toon and Thierry Onkelinx and Heikkinen, {Risto K.} and Helena Romo and Enrique Garc{\'i}a-Barros and Munguira, {Miguel L.} and Wilfried Thuiller and {van Swaay}, {Chris A. M.} and Oliver Schweiger and Josef Settele and Alexander Harpke and Martin Wiemers and Llu{\'i}s Brotons and Miska Luoto",
year = "2017",
language = "English",
pages = "1--15",
journal = "Diversity and Distributions",
issn = "1366-9516",
publisher = "Blackwell Scientific Publishers",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The need for large-scale distribution data to estimate regional changes in species richness under future climate change

AU - Titeux, Nicolas

AU - Maes, Dirk

AU - Van Daele, Toon

AU - Onkelinx, Thierry

AU - Heikkinen, Risto K.

AU - Romo, Helena

AU - García-Barros, Enrique

AU - Munguira, Miguel L.

AU - Thuiller, Wilfried

AU - van Swaay, Chris A. M.

AU - Schweiger, Oliver

AU - Settele, Josef

AU - Harpke, Alexander

AU - Wiemers, Martin

AU - Brotons, Lluís

AU - Luoto, Miska

PY - 2017

Y1 - 2017

N2 - Aim Species distribution models built with geographically restricted data often fail to capture the full range of conditions experienced by species across their entire distribution area. Using such models to predict distribution shifts under future environmental change may, therefore, produce biased projections. However, restricted-scale models have the potential to include a larger sample of taxa for which distribution data is available and to provide finer-resolution projections that are better applied to conservation planning than the forecasts of broad-scale models. We examine the circumstances under which the projected shifts in species richness patterns derived from restricted-scale and broad-scale models are most likely to be similar.Location Europe.Methods The distribution of butterflies in Finland, Belgium/Netherlands and Spain was modelled based on restricted-scale (local) and broad-scale (continental) distribution and climate data. Both types of models were projected under future climate change scenarios to assess potential changes in species richness.Results In Finland, species richness was projected to increase strongly based on restricted-scale models and to decrease slightly with broad-scale models. In Belgium/Netherlands, restricted-scale models projected a larger decrease in richness than broad-scale models. In Spain, both models projected a slight decrease in richness. We obtained similar projections based on restricted-scale and broad-scale models only in Spain because the climatic conditions available here covered the warm part of the distributions of butterflies better than in Finland and Belgium/Netherlands.Main conclusions Restricted-scale models that fail to capture the warm part of species distributions produce biased estimates of future changes in species richness when projected under climatic conditions with no modern analogue in the study area. We recommend the use of distribution data beyond the boundaries of the study area to capture the part of the species response curves reflecting the climatic conditions that will prevail within that area in the future.

AB - Aim Species distribution models built with geographically restricted data often fail to capture the full range of conditions experienced by species across their entire distribution area. Using such models to predict distribution shifts under future environmental change may, therefore, produce biased projections. However, restricted-scale models have the potential to include a larger sample of taxa for which distribution data is available and to provide finer-resolution projections that are better applied to conservation planning than the forecasts of broad-scale models. We examine the circumstances under which the projected shifts in species richness patterns derived from restricted-scale and broad-scale models are most likely to be similar.Location Europe.Methods The distribution of butterflies in Finland, Belgium/Netherlands and Spain was modelled based on restricted-scale (local) and broad-scale (continental) distribution and climate data. Both types of models were projected under future climate change scenarios to assess potential changes in species richness.Results In Finland, species richness was projected to increase strongly based on restricted-scale models and to decrease slightly with broad-scale models. In Belgium/Netherlands, restricted-scale models projected a larger decrease in richness than broad-scale models. In Spain, both models projected a slight decrease in richness. We obtained similar projections based on restricted-scale and broad-scale models only in Spain because the climatic conditions available here covered the warm part of the distributions of butterflies better than in Finland and Belgium/Netherlands.Main conclusions Restricted-scale models that fail to capture the warm part of species distributions produce biased estimates of future changes in species richness when projected under climatic conditions with no modern analogue in the study area. We recommend the use of distribution data beyond the boundaries of the study area to capture the part of the species response curves reflecting the climatic conditions that will prevail within that area in the future.

M3 - A1: Web of Science-article

SP - 1

EP - 15

JO - Diversity and Distributions

JF - Diversity and Distributions

SN - 1366-9516

ER -

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